82nd Academy Award Predictions

Featured, Film — By Doug Buffone on February 6, 2010 at 2:18 pm

The only reason I look forward to the bitter deep winter months is because it is also awards season. It recent weeks we have had the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and the Grammys. However, without a doubt, the most exciting and entertaining of all of the awards is the little golden man–Oscar.

Last year had some thrilling movie-going experiences. Avatar, Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Up, and The Hangover were my favorites and the Academy has recognized many of them in this year’s nominees. Yes, there are some surprises in the list.  The Blind Side is a Best Picture Nominee, Maggie Gyllenhaal for Best Supporting Actress, and no nominations for The Hangover. Of all of these, the lack of nominations for The Hangover was the most disappointing for me. This year, there are 10 Best Picture nominees, a move made to include more films and  to highlight some of the largely ignored genres. Except, they really didn’t do that–they still ignore great comedies.

Until I become a member of the Academy and bring some further amendments to the system, I am going to just give my selections from the nominees. In addition to my personal picks, I am going to highlight the films that are most likely to win.

Best Picture

  • Avatar
    Avatar
  • The Blind Side
    The Blind Side
  • District 9
    District 9
  • An Education
    An Education
  • The Hurt Locker
    The Hurt Locker
  • Inglourious Basterds
    Inglourious Basterds
  • Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
    Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
  • A Serious Man
    A Serious Man
  • Up in the Air
    Up in the Air

Should Win: The Hurt Locker was easily the most thrilling, tense movie I have ever seen in a movie theater. I was constantly holding my breath and sitting on the edge of my seat during the beautifully filmed bomb defusing scenes. However, the drama was nothing compared to the thought provoking message flashed across the screen at the beginning and explored throughout the film: “War is a drug”.

Will Win: Avatar. Although The Hurt Locker has a good chance of winning, the movie didn’t had the widespread appeal that the Best Picture Oscar usually goes to. Hollywood loves James Cameron and his film was certainly a phantasmagorical experience. It’s certainly deserving and its pretty likely that the popularity and critical acclaim will propel the film into the winner’s circle.

Actor in a Leading Role

  • Jeff Bridges
    Jeff Bridges
    Crazy Heart
  • George Clooney
    George Clooney
    Up in the Air
  • Colin Firth
    Colin Firth
    A Single Man
  • Morgan Freeman
    Morgan Freeman
    Invictus
  • Jeremy Renner
    Jeremy Renner
    The Hurt Locker

Should Win: Jeremy Renner. Playing an addicted soldier in The Hurt Locker, Jeremy Renner did a phenomenal job playing the tormented soldier in Iraq.

Will Win: Jeff Bridges. Having already won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award, Jeff Bridges is the favorite for this award and most likely to win. His performance was what made Crazy Heart a great film.

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Matt Damon
    Matt Damon
    Invictus
  • Woody Harrelson
    Woody Harrelson
    The Messenger
  • Christopher Plummer
    Christopher Plummer
    The Last Station
  • Stanley Tucci
    Stanley Tucci
    The Lovely Bones
  • Christoph Waltz
    Christoph Waltz
    Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Christoph Waltz. This largely unknown Austrian actor is what made Inglourious Basterds entertaining. I wasn’t the biggest fan of Quentin Tarantino’s latest film, but I was a huge fan of Christoph Waltz’s performance. He had holding my sides in pain from laughing so much at his perfectly delivered lines.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz. Although he certainly has some fierce competition, Waltz performance was one of the highlights of last year in movies. Expect him to be the winner.

Actress in a Leading Role

  • The Blind Side
    Sandra Bullock

The Blind Side

  • Helen Mirren
    Helen Mirren
    The Last Station
  • Carey Mulligan
    Carey Mulligan
    An Education
  • Gabourey Sidibe
    Gabourey Sidibe
    Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

  • Meryl Streep
    Meryl Streep
    Julie & Julia
Should Win: Meryl Streep. Now the most nominated actress in Oscar’s history, Meryl Streep dominates the screen in almost every film. Opposite Amy Adams, her role as Julia Child was an uncanny reflection of the eccentric chef.
Will Win: Sandra Bullock. Although facing Meryl Streep would strike fear in the hearts of the other nominees, Bullock’s performance in The Blind Side garnered huge nods from film critics. Although she is also nominated for a Razzie award, it’s entirely possible that she walks away with the awards for best and worst performances of the year.

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Penélope Cruz
    Penélope Cruz
    Nine
  • Vera Farmiga
    Vera Farmiga
    Up in the Air

  • Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Crazy Heart
  • Anna Kendrick
    Anna Kendrick
    Up in the Air

  • Mo'Nique
    Mo’Nique
    Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire


Should Win: Anna Kendrick. Up in the Air was one of my favorites films of the year for many reasons, however the surprisingly strong performance from Kendrick was what really stood out. Performing next to George Clooney and Vera Farmiga, that was definitely an accomplishment in itself.

Will Win: Mo’Nique. Playing a tormented single mother who berates her deeply depressed child in Precious, Mo’Nique won the hearts and minds of critics with her performance. Already having won a number of awards for the role, it’s likely she will walk away with her first Oscar.

Animated Feature Film

  • Coraline
    Coraline

  • Fantastic Mr. Fox
    Fantastic Mr. Fox

  • The Princess and the Frog
    The Princess and the Frog

  • The Secret of Kells
    The Secret of Kells

  • Up
    Up

Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox. An animated film that seemed geared more towards adults than children, the animation style combined with great performances from George Clooney, Meryl Streep, and Jason Swartzman, made the film stand out.
Will Win: Up. The best scene from Up was the much discussed sequence showing the complete love journey of two people without using any dialogue. It was an emotionally, beautifully crafted section of the film. The rest of the film wasn’t as good as that section. However, it doesn’t really matter because Pixar movies don’t lose often at the Oscars.

Art Direction

  • Avatar
    Avatar
    Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg (Art Direction); Kim Sinclair (Set Decoration)

  • Nine
    Nine
    John Myhre (Art Direction); Gordon Sim (Set Decoration)

  • Sherlock Holmes
    Sherlock Holmes
    Sarah Greenwood (Art Direction); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
  • The Young Victoria
    The Young Victoria
    Patrice Vermette (Art Direction); Maggie Gray (Set Decoration)


Should Win: Avatar. The most visceral movie going experience of the year. The beauty of the world completely brushed away some weaknesses in the story arch.
Will Win: Avatar. This one seems more locked up than any other categories.

Cinematography

  • Avatar
    Avatar
    Mauro Fiore
  • The Hurt Locker
    The Hurt Locker
    Barry Ackroyd

  • Inglourious Basterds
    Inglourious Basterds
    Robert Richardson

  • The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band)
    The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band)
    Christian Berger
Should Win: Avatar. The film used new technologies and won big with both critics and movie-goers alike. The 3-D technology wins the film major points in this category.
Will Win: Avatar.

Costume Design

  • Bright Star
    Bright Star
    Janet Patterson

  • Coco Before Chanel
    Coco Before Chanel
    Catherine Leterrier
  • The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
    The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
    Monique Prudhomme

  • The Young Victoria
    The Young Victoria
    Sandy Powell


Should Win: The Young Victoria. Costumes from other eras are particularly difficult to do well. Sandy Powell did a phenomenal job creating costumes from Victorian England which made the film all the more realistic.

Will Win: The Young Victoria. Traditionally historical biopics have done well in this category. I would expect history to repeat itself.

Directing

  • Avatar
    Avatar
    James Cameron
  • Inglourious Basterds
    Inglourious Basterds
    Quentin Tarantino
  • Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
    Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
    Lee Daniels
  • Up in the Air
    Up in the Air
    Jason Reitman
  • The Hurt Locker
The Hurt Locker

Katheryn Bigelow

Should Win: Katheryn Bigelow. The Hurt Locker was the best film of the year and much of the credit needs to be attributed to Bigelow’s direction. As I previously said, The Hurt Locker was filled with tension but was much more than a simple action film–it should be considered one of the best war films ever created.

Will Win: James Cameron. Although Cameron has stated that he fully expects Katheryn Bigelow to win, the Oscars usually award the films with both critical and financial success. Avatar is now the biggest grossing film in history and one of the best reviewed films of the year. Although The Hurt Locker got near flawless reviews, it’s limited release didn’t allow for huge profits which can seriously hurt in a year when the Academy is trying to gain a larger audience for the Oscars.

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